Week of September 1-5, 2026. Prices as of Friday. Last PMW issue: August 27.
Gold and Silver This Week
Gold gave back a chunk of August’s historic 15% rally this week. Gold fell to $4,375 on Tuesday as rate-hike expectations built, dropped further to $4,336 on Wednesday as Iran’s retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases and the UAE lifted oil, yields, and the dollar simultaneously without triggering the usual safe-haven bid. Thursday brought a sharp rebound to $4,478 as Treasury yields retreated.
Then came Friday morning’s nonfarm payrolls report. August payrolls came in at 162,000, nearly three times Wall Street’s 56,000 consensus. July was revised up from negative 23,000 to positive 21,000. Unemployment held at 4.1%. Gold dropped $90 in three minutes, plunging from the $4,470 area to below $4,380 before bouncing back toward $4,437. For the week, gold is down roughly 3% from the $4,585 level reported in last week’s issue.
Silver followed a similar pattern. After testing $70 late last week, it slipped to $63.87 on Wednesday before recovering to $66.37 on Thursday. The post-NFP selloff pulled it back toward $64. The gold-silver ratio sits near 67, roughly where it was a week ago, as both metals absorbed the same macro hit.
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The NFP Shock and the Path to September 15
The jobs report changed the calculus for the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Traders in interest-rate futures now price a 60% chance of a rate hike, up from roughly 50-50 heading into the morning. The data showed the labor market is strong enough to absorb tighter policy without breaking, which aligns with what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled at Jackson Hole last Friday: the Fed is prepared to raise rates if inflation does not cool.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller pushed back earlier this week, arguing the Fed should hold if August inflation data confirms progress. That sets up a genuine debate at the September meeting. Next week’s CPI report will likely settle it: a hot reading cements a hike, a cool one keeps Waller’s hold argument alive. Either way, today’s jobs data took away the cushion that had supported gold through August.
Wednesday’s Iran escalation was the week’s other major event. Iran struck U.S. bases and UAE targets in retaliation for earlier American airstrikes. Typically that would lift gold. Instead, oil spiked, yields climbed, and the dollar strengthened, all of which work against gold. The market is treating the conflict as an inflation accelerant, not a safe-haven catalyst.
Gold ETFs and Central Banks
ETF flows tell the story. August brought $5.5 billion in global gold ETF inflows, with SPDR Gold Shares alone absorbing $1.19 billion on August 25. The first week of September reversed that: GLD posted five-day net outflows of $254 million. The Warsh speech and a stronger dollar are pulling institutional money back out. Global gold ETF holdings sit at approximately 4,068 tonnes with AUM near $530 billion.
Central bank buying remains the floor under gold. Q2 2026 set a record at 288.9 tonnes, led by Poland (51 tonnes) and China (33 tonnes). The People’s Bank of China has now bought gold for 21 consecutive months. A World Gold Council survey found a record 45% of central banks plan to add reserves over the next 12 months. Sovereign demand does not react to NFP prints.
US Mint: Trump Dollar Sells Out, Palladium Eagle and Coolidge Medal Launch
The Trump $1 coin was the biggest Mint story of the week. Released Wednesday at noon, the Semiquincentennial Presidential Dollar sold out within three hours. A roll of 25 coins was priced at $61 and a bag of 100 at $154.50, a premium of roughly 144% and 55% over face value, respectively. The Mint randomly included 250,000 coins struck on July 4th with a special “JULY 4TH” privy mark, adding a treasure-hunt element. Initial household limits were set at 5,000. By Wednesday afternoon, the Mint’s website noted additional inventory was “being made,” suggesting the sellout was temporary and more stock is coming.
Thursday also brought two launches. The 2026-W Palladium American Eagle Uncirculated went on sale at $1,895 with a 5,000-coin mintage cap and a one-per-household limit. That is the lowest announced cap in the program’s 10-year history. The coin carries the semiquincentennial dual date and Liberty Bell privy mark. For the full mintage breakdown, see our Palladium Eagle mintage chart.
The Calvin Coolidge Presidential Silver Medal also launched Thursday at $164 for one troy ounce of .999 fine silver. No mintage or household limits. It is the 30th medal in a series that has been working its way through every U.S. president in order since 2018.
On the Best of the Mint front, the 1804 Silver Dollar set has sold 9,947 of its 15,000 allocation (66.3%). The series finale, the 1907 Saint-Gaudens High Relief set, arrives September 24 at $6,290 with a 15,000-unit cap. That set closes the five-part program and features what many consider the most iconic coin design in American history.
Industry Notes
Platinum traded near $1,814 on Thursday, holding its recent range. Palladium sat near $1,423, still well below the $2,500-plus levels it traded at in 2021-2022 when Russian supply disruption fears tightened the market. The Iran escalation adds a layer of supply risk for platinum group metals, given South Africa’s dominance in production and the broader energy-price implications of a widening Middle East conflict.
Premium Trends
Silver Eagle premiums continue to compress. The cheapest 2026 Silver Eagle is currently around $68, a premium of roughly 7% over melt. That is a fraction of the 30-50% premiums that prevailed in 2022-2023 and one of the narrowest spreads in the program’s recent history. Monster boxes run $2-$4 per coin over spot. Gold bar premiums remain at 1-3% for one-ounce bars. For current dealer comparisons, see our gold price comparison and Silver Eagle comparison pages.
Week Ahead
Monday is Labor Day. Markets reopen Tuesday. The August CPI report, expected mid-week, is the last major inflation reading before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. If it runs hot, the rate hike is likely locked in. If it cools, the debate stays open. On the Mint side, the 1804 Dollar set is two-thirds sold with no restock announcement. Mark September 24 for the Saint-Gaudens Best of the Mint finale: at 15,000 units and $6,290, it may be the most anticipated Mint release of the year. And keep an eye on Iran. The conflict’s economic impact, through oil, yields, and the dollar, is shaping precious metals more than the geopolitical risk itself.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial or investment advice. FindBullionPrices.com is a price comparison platform and does not sell bullion or coins.
