Gold and Silver: Two Weeks of Whipsaw
Gold closed our last issue below $4,000 for the first time since late June. Two weeks later, spot sits at roughly $4,068, up about 1.7% from the July 16 close. The recovery was not smooth. Gold dipped to a two-week low near $4,028 on July 17, bounced after soft producer-price data, gave back gains as Iran headlines pushed oil higher, then rallied again after the Fed held rates steady on July 29. By Thursday July 31, gold was on track for its first monthly gain since February.
Silver followed a similar arc but with more volatility. Spot silver closed Thursday around $57.50, up roughly 2% from the $56.32 close in our last issue. The gold-silver ratio tightened slightly to about 70:1 from 71:1 two weeks ago, still well above the long-run equilibrium near 60. At these levels, silver remains historically cheap relative to gold, which tends to matter more over quarters than weeks.
Platinum gained ground to $1,655, up from $1,619 at last writing. Palladium firmed to $1,287, recovering from its July lows as automotive production data stabilized slightly, though the long-term demand picture remains pressured by EV adoption and platinum substitution in catalytic converters.
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The Fed Held. Three Dissenters Wanted to Hike.
The July 28-29 FOMC meeting ended with a 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The three dissenters, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan, each preferred a 25-basis-point hike. That is the most hawkish dissent split of this cycle.
The statement acknowledged that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace “despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.” Productivity growth and capital investment were called strong. The unemployment rate has changed little.
Markets are now pricing roughly a 63% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting and at least two 25-basis-point increases by mid-2027. Gold popped on the hold announcement, then gave part of the move back as traders focused on the hawkish dissent count. The fact that gold held above $4,000 through a week of hawkish Fed rhetoric is worth noting. A year ago, that combination would have sent spot well below $3,800.
Iran, Oil, and a Brent Crude Push to $90
The Iran situation escalated materially over these two weeks. On July 20, President Trump warned that “Iran will pay” after IRGC-linked forces killed U.S. service members in Iraq. CENTCOM responded with another round of strikes. Iran retaliated by attacking two UAE-flagged tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military escort on July 31.
Brent crude surged from $84 at last writing to $90.12 by Thursday close, its highest level since the initial Iran escalation in early 2026. WTI tracked above $86. On July 29, when Trump threatened to “hit Iran hard,” Brent briefly jumped above $90.74 intraday.
For metals, the oil spike cuts both ways. Higher energy costs feed inflation expectations, which should support gold as a store of value. But if those same inflation fears push the Fed toward September, the resulting dollar strength and higher real yields work against gold and hit silver’s industrial demand outlook. Over these two weeks, gold navigated the crosscurrents and ended slightly higher. The market seems to be treating $4,000 as a floor rather than a ceiling, which is a shift from where we were in mid-June.
Shanghai Silver Premium Holds Above 12%
The Shanghai silver premium closed July 31 at +12.2% over Western spot, roughly $7.19 per ounce above COMEX. That is essentially unchanged in recent weeks. The premium’s persistence at these levels matters more than its direction at this point. China’s July 1 strategic-mineral export controls on silver, ongoing PBOC import quotas, and sustained solar panel manufacturing demand have turned an elevated premium into a structural one.
Shanghai gold, by contrast, traded within a narrow band of roughly 1% above and below COMEX over the past month. The gold market’s arbitrage channels remain more open than silver’s, partly because gold is exempt from China’s VAT while silver carries a 13% tax on imports and domestic sales.
You can track both spreads in real time on our Shanghai silver premium page and Shanghai gold premium page. When paper COMEX prices fall but the Shanghai premium holds, it tells you the physical market is tighter than the futures screen suggests. That signal has been right more often than wrong in 2026.
COMEX and LBMA Inventories
COMEX registered silver stood at 96.2 million ounces as of July 29, slightly above the 94.9 million ounces earlier in the month. Total COMEX silver (registered plus eligible) was 331.4 million ounces. On the gold side, registered inventory was 14.7 million ounces, with total vault holdings at 27.0 million ounces. July was a significant delivery month for silver futures, which likely accounts for some of the inventory movement.
In London, LBMA vault data showed gold holdings reaching 8,865 tonnes at month-end July, a 1% increase from June, valued at roughly $940 billion. LBMA silver holdings were last reported at 28,082 tonnes (end of June data, July figures pending), up 1.7% month-over-month. The modest rebuilding of London stocks follows the dramatic drawdown in early 2026 when gold was flowing east to satisfy Chinese and Middle Eastern demand during the price run above $5,000.
Central Banks Set a Q2 Record: 289 Tonnes
The World Gold Council’s Q2 2026 demand report landed this month and the headline number is extraordinary. Central banks purchased 288.9 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, a 62% year-over-year jump and the highest quarterly total on record. They bought into a 16% price decline, which tells you everything about the nature of this demand. Central banks are not trading the CPI print or the FOMC statement. They are rebalancing reserves on a multi-year timeline.
Poland leads all buyers in 2026, adding 82 tonnes in the first half of the year and pushing total reserves to 632 tonnes. The National Bank of Poland has an announced target of 700 tonnes and shows no sign of slowing. China’s PBOC added 40 tonnes in H1, bringing reported holdings to 2,346 tonnes, with 33 tonnes coming in Q2 alone, the largest quarterly purchase since late 2023.
The structural story remains the same one we have been tracking all year: central banks have averaged roughly 1,000 tonnes of annual gold purchases over the past four years. That pace has doubled from the prior decade. It is the floor under the price of gold even in weeks when the spot price falls, and it is the reason gold traded at $4,068 on July 31 rather than $3,500.
Canada Tariffs: 50% Duties Hit Precious Metals Products August 19
President Trump escalated the Canada trade dispute on July 20, announcing 50% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian goods, effective August 19. The duties cover polished diamonds, semi-manufactured silver products, gold and silver jewelry, and jewelry components. These sit on top of the existing 50% duties on steel, aluminum, and copper articles already in place.
The direct impact on bullion coins remains uncertain. Raw gold and silver bullion have historically been treated differently from manufactured goods in tariff schedules, and Silver Maple Leafs and Gold Maple Leafs cleared prior tariff rounds without duty. But the scope of this latest round is broader, the language targets “precious metals products,” and dealers who source from the Royal Canadian Mint are watching closely. If Canadian-minted bullion becomes subject to the 50% rate, expect dealer premiums on Maples to increase noticeably within weeks of the August 19 effective date.
US Mint: Sellouts, Semiquincentennial, and What’s Coming
The Mint had one of its busiest two-week stretches in years.
Enhanced Uncirculated Silver Eagle (July 21): The 2026-W Enhanced Uncirculated Silver Eagle, priced at $169 with a mintage of 125,000, sold 117,233 coins in roughly three minutes. It currently shows as unavailable on the Mint’s website with a “Remind Me” alert option. The coin features dual dates “1776 ~ 2026” and a Liberty Bell privy mark with “250” for the Semiquincentennial.
Freedom Ringing Liberty Bell Coins (July 16): The Mint’s bell-shaped coins, the first non-round coins in modern U.S. history, launched the same day as our last issue. Each piece was hand-loaded and struck on a hydraulic press in the Philadelphia Mint’s R&D lab. The 1-ounce gold coin was priced at $19,600 (2,026 mintage), the 1/2-ounce gold at $10,050 (2,026 mintage), and the 1/2-ounce silver medal at $750 (2,026 mintage). The silver medal sold out in under one minute, with 2,021 of 2,026 pieces claimed on launch day.
Reverse Proof Morgan and Peace Dollars (July 9): Both 1776 ~ 2026 Reverse Proof silver dollars launched at $173 each, available individually for the first time. Combined four-day sales hit 303,742 coins, with the Morgan at 63.5% of its 250,000-unit mintage and the Peace at 58%. Production moved from San Francisco to Philadelphia for 2026.
Coming in August: The headline release is the 1804 Dollar Gold Coin and Silver Medal Set, launching August 27. The set pairs a one-ounce .9999 fine gold coin reproducing the legendary 1804 Draped Bust dollar with a one-ounce .999 fine silver medal. Price is TBD (dependent on the Mint’s gold pricing tier at launch), and the initial household limit is one set. The Comic Art Three Medal Set (Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman) launches August 3 at $130. Additional Semiquincentennial products, including 1776 ~ 2026 Morgan and Peace dollars in a Best of the Mint set, are also scheduled.
What We’re Watching
Iran remains the macro driver that sets the tone for everything else. Brent at $90 puts pressure on the June PCE improvement, and the July CPI print on August 12 will reveal how much of the oil spike has already passed through to consumer prices. If headline CPI ticks back up, the 63% odds of a September hike climb higher, and gold faces near-term headwinds from a stronger dollar and rising yields.
The Q2 GDP miss at 1.5% introduces a new variable. The economy is still growing but decelerating. If the next round of data confirms the slowdown, the Fed’s calculus shifts from “how high” to “how long.” That pivot, whenever it comes, is historically when gold and silver stage their strongest sustained moves. We are not there yet, but the data is bending in that direction.
The Shanghai silver premium remains the physical market’s tightest signal. A 12% premium that refuses to compress while COMEX spot churns sideways is telling you that physical demand is absorbing supply at prices above what the paper market is willing to pay. Eventually one side gives. It is worth tracking alongside the factors that determine what silver is worth today and whether premiums you are paying at the dealer level align with what the broader market is doing.
On the Mint side, the August 27 launch of the 1804 Dollar gold coin set will be the most anticipated release of the summer. With a one-set household limit and pricing tied to spot, demand will overwhelm supply. If you missed the Enhanced Silver Eagle’s three-minute window, set your alarms early.
