Week of August 4-7, 2026. Prices as of Friday morning. Last PMW issue: July 16.
Gold and Silver This Week
Gold opened the week around $4,110 and ground higher through Wednesday on Hormuz deal optimism. Thursday brought a jump to $4,307 after President Trump said a deal could come “soon.” Friday morning, gold surged to $4,350 after the July jobs report came in far worse than expected. That is roughly a 6% weekly gain.
Silver broke out of the $55-60 range it had been stuck in since late June. Spot opened Monday at $58.63, pushed to $62.27 by Wednesday (the highest since June 22), and surged past $65 Friday morning. Silver gained roughly 11% on the week, outperforming gold by nearly 2:1. The gold-silver ratio compressed from around 70:1 to 67:1.
Platinum climbed above $1,700 for the first time since mid-June, reaching $1,731 by Thursday. The World Platinum Investment Council projects a fourth consecutive year of supply deficits in 2026, and the inventory cushion from prior surplus years is now estimated at less than three months of global consumption.
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The Jobs Report
Friday’s July employment report was the week’s biggest catalyst. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, the first outright decline in months. Economists had expected a gain of 83,000. Government payrolls dropped 53,000, continuing the federal workforce reduction that has been running since February. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.2% year-over-year, the weakest reading since May 2021.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but only because labor force participation kept declining. The employment-to-population ratio slipped to 58.9%, its lowest level since May 2014. The Fed has held at 3.5-3.75% all year with no cuts, and some traders had been pricing in a potential hike. After the jobs number, CME FedWatch probabilities shifted toward a cut by year-end. Gold and silver both spiked within minutes of the release.
The report also puts the government hiring contraction in sharper focus. Federal agencies have been shedding staff since the hiring freeze took effect in February, and those losses are now large enough to drag the headline number negative on their own. The private sector added jobs, but not enough to offset the public sector decline.
Hormuz Deal Progress
The Strait of Hormuz deal between Iran, Oman, and the United States moved closer to completion this week. Iran and Oman reached agreement on a proposed shipping route, and a joint statement is reportedly in final drafting. President Trump said Wednesday that “a lot of progress had been made” and that an agreement could come “as early as today,” though he later reportedly pushed back on terms that would give Iran more operational control over the strait.
Oil dropped roughly 10% on the week as reopening expectations grew, with Brent falling from the mid-$70s to the high $60s. Nothing is signed yet, and the sticking point is enforcement and the degree of Iranian naval presence around the shipping lanes. If the deal closes, it removes the biggest supply-disruption premium in oil markets and could speed up the timeline for a Fed rate cut. If it falls apart, oil snaps back. Either way, the mid-week move lower in oil is what powered gold and silver higher before Friday’s jobs report added a second catalyst.
The Yen Intervention
Japan and the United States confirmed a coordinated yen-buying intervention last Friday, the first joint operation to support the yen since 1998. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama announced the move on Monday. BOJ data indicated Japan may have spent as much as $34 billion buying yen on Friday alone, on top of a possible $59 billion operation on Thursday.
The yen had slid to 40-year lows against the dollar. Treasury Secretary Bessent chose to sell euros rather than dollars, using a Federal Reserve repo facility that had rarely been deployed for currency operations. Both sides signaled they would intervene again if necessary. The scale of the operation, potentially $93 billion across two days, is a signal that major governments consider dollar strength a problem worth spending real money on. A weaker dollar supports gold by making it cheaper for the rest of the world to buy.
Central Banks: China Buys, Korea Returns, Russia Sells
China’s central bank added 640,000 ounces (roughly 20 metric tons) to its gold reserves in July, extending its buying streak to 21 consecutive months. That was the largest single-month increase since October 2023. Total PBOC holdings reached 76.08 million ounces at the end of July, worth $306 billion. The buying wave began in November 2024 and has accelerated in recent months despite rising prices.
South Korea’s central bank announced it will resume buying gold from domestic producers for the first time in 13 years. The Bank of Korea established a purchasing framework with LS MnM and Korea Zinc, the country’s two major gold producers, who collectively produce 40 to 45 tons annually. South Korea last purchased gold in 2013, adding 40 tons in 2011, 30 in 2012, and 20 in 2013 before stopping after prices declined.
Russia is moving the other direction. The Bank of Russia sold roughly 44 tons of gold in the first half of 2026 to offset a $61 billion budget deficit driven by declining energy revenues. Holdings dropped to 73.4 million ounces by July, the lowest since February 2022. At the current pace of about seven tons per month, Russia could sell 80 to 90 tons this year. China is buying 20 tons a month at record prices. Russia is selling 7 tons a month out of fiscal necessity. Net central bank flows remain strongly positive.
Inventory and Premium Watch
COMEX silver registered inventory stood at 99.72 million ounces as of July 30, with total vault holdings at 332.82 million ounces. Registered inventory has risen from 76 million ounces since March, likely reflecting metal being repositioned from London to New York for delivery against futures contracts. COMEX gold registered inventory sat at 14.66 million ounces with 27.04 million total.
Shanghai silver warehouse stocks continued their decline, dropping from 1,272 tons on August 5 to 1,260 tons on August 6. The steady SHFE drawdown since the spring stands in contrast to the COMEX build. Premium trends over time tell part of that story. Shanghai premiums have moderated from the 12% levels seen in mid-July but remain elevated relative to historical norms.
What to Watch Next Week
The Hormuz deal is the near-term catalyst. If a formal agreement materializes, oil drops further, inflation expectations ease, and the Fed has more room to signal a cut at the September meeting. The July CPI report (due August 12) is the next hard data point. If price pressures are cooling as the jobs report suggests, the case for a rate cut by year-end gets difficult for the Fed to dismiss.
On the supply side, China and South Korea are adding to reserves while Russia sells into the market and COMEX inventories build. Russia’s sales are being absorbed without visible impact on price. For retail buyers, the question is whether this week’s breakout in gold and silver holds or pulls back. Comparing live dealer pricing on gold and silver before a pullback is the practical move if you are looking to add to positions at the tightest premiums available.
