Week of September 15-18, 2026. Prices as of Thursday morning. Last issue: September 11.
This is the first issue of Bullion Weekly, the new name for what was previously Precious Metals Weekly. Same format, same coverage, shorter name.
Gold and Silver This Week
The Fed hiked rates on Wednesday. Gold sold off on the announcement, then bounced overnight.
Gold entered the week near $4,348 and drifted lower through Tuesday as traders positioned for a hike. Fed funds futures had priced a 60%+ probability since Friday’s CPI report. When the FOMC announced a 25 basis point increase to 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday afternoon, gold dropped to around $4,270, its lowest level in over a month.
By Thursday morning, gold had climbed back above $4,310, roughly 2.5% off the post-announcement low. Two things helped: the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.94% (down 8 bps from Tuesday), and oil dropped 4% on reports of a temporary ceasefire corridor in the Strait of Hormuz. Falling real yields, even alongside a nominal rate increase, gave gold room to recover.
Silver outperformed gold this week. After touching $63 on Monday, silver rallied to $64.70 by Wednesday, up 2.9%. The gold-silver ratio narrowed from 68 to roughly 66, still above the 50-year average near 60. Silver tends to outperform gold when rate hikes are read as a sign the economy can absorb higher borrowing costs, which is how the market read this one.
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The Fed Hiked. Now What?
Wednesday’s 25 basis point increase was unanimous (12-0) and the first hike since July 2023. The new target range is 3.75%-4.00%. Chair Warsh cited “elevated inflation” driven by energy costs and said the committee would assess incoming data before deciding on further moves.
The updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials projecting at least one more hike this year, with four penciling in two. The median year-end rate projection rose to 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June. Markets now price one additional 25 bps hike in November or December, with further tightening extending into early 2027.
Friday’s August CPI report (September 12) set the stage. Headline CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year, matching expectations, but the monthly gain of 0.4% was almost all energy: gasoline rose 3.9% on the month, more than a third of the total index increase. The energy index climbed 16.3% year-over-year. Core CPI was 2.4% annually with a 0.3% monthly gain, slightly above expectations. Hot headline inflation plus a core reading that refused to cool further made the case for a hike.
What matters next is whether the market treats this as a one-and-done or the start of a cycle. If the 10-year yield keeps climbing toward 5% and the dollar strengthens, gold faces more selling. If yields stabilize as the economy absorbs higher borrowing costs, the post-hike bounce could hold. Wednesday’s price action leaned toward the second read, but one day is not a trend.
Oil, Iran, and the Inflation Loop
Oil prices surged above $109 per barrel on Brent crude earlier this week before pulling back to around $102 on Thursday following reports of a temporary shipping corridor agreement in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI traded near $97.
Gasoline hit a Labor Day record of $4.15 per gallon, and diesel is trending toward $6. Those costs feed straight into CPI, and CPI feeds into Fed policy. Higher oil drives up inflation readings, raises rate-hike odds, strengthens the dollar, and pressures gold. That sequence has dominated gold prices for the past month.
A sustained de-escalation in the Gulf would lower oil prices, which would ease inflation expectations, reduce rate-hike odds, and bring down real yields. That path is actually more bullish for gold than continued conflict, because gold tracks real yields more closely than it tracks oil.
Costco Launches Kirkland Signature Silver Bars
Costco added a 1 oz Kirkland Signature Silver Bar to its precious metals lineup this month, sold in 5-packs at $349.99 to $369.99 depending on spot. The bars are minted by Sunshine Minting, contain .9999 fine silver, and come in a Kirkland-branded tamper-evident assay card. It is the first private-label bullion product from a mainstream retailer.
The bullion premium runs 7-11% over spot, comparable to buying a branded Sunshine Mint bar from an online dealer. Costco members who stack the Anywhere Visa (2% cash back) and Executive membership (2% reward) can reduce the net premium by up to 4 percentage points. For a full breakdown, see our Costco Kirkland Signature Silver Bars article.
Platinum and Palladium
Platinum traded near $1,773 on Thursday, down about 2% from last week. The World Platinum Investment Council’s revised 2026 surplus forecast keeps a lid on gains. Platinum’s tie to the auto sector makes it sensitive to rate-hike fears and consumer spending.
Palladium fell to $1,289, down roughly 2% on the week. The ongoing shift from palladium to platinum in autocatalysts continues to weigh on price, which is well below the 2021-2022 highs above $2,500.
US Mint Updates
The 1907 Saint-Gaudens High Relief Best of the Mint set goes on sale September 24 at noon ET. This is the fifth and final release in the Best of the Mint series. The set pairs a one-ounce .9999 fine gold coin reproducing the 1907 High Relief $20 double eagle with a one-ounce .999 fine silver medal. Pricing is $6,290, mintage is capped at 15,000, and the household limit is one.
The 1804 Silver Dollar Best of the Mint set sits at roughly 66% sold (about 9,947 of 15,000). With a week to go before the Saint-Gaudens launch, the 1804 set is still available, and the series finale carries a household limit of one.
The Trump $1 coin remains listed as available, with the Mint producing additional inventory beyond the initial run. The 2026-W Palladium Eagle is sold out at 4,778 units. Further ahead, the Trump $250 Gold Proof launches November 5 and the Buffalo Anniversary 1/10 oz arrives November 13.
Premium Trends
The cheapest 2026 Silver Eagle runs around $68, a bullion premium of roughly 8% over melt. Random-year Eagles sit closer to 4% over melt. Both are tight by historical standards: Silver Eagle premiums ran 30-50% above spot during 2022-2023. Gold bar premiums hold steady at 1-3% for one-ounce bars. For live comparisons, visit our gold bullion price comparison and silver bullion price comparison pages.
Week Ahead
The next few sessions will show whether gold’s Thursday bounce holds or fades. Data to watch: weekly jobless claims, existing home sales, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index. Cracks in the labor market would ease November rate-hike odds and support gold. Strong numbers would make the dot plot’s 4.1% year-end projection look conservative.
On the Mint calendar, the Saint-Gaudens Best of the Mint set launches September 24 at noon ET. At 15,000 units and a household limit of one, demand should be heavy. The 1804 Dollar set is the only Best of the Mint release with inventory left, still about a third unsold.
In the bullion market, Costco’s Kirkland silver bars continue to sell out within hours of each restock. Secondary market bullion prices are running well above the Costco retail price. How long that novelty premium lasts depends on how aggressively Costco restocks. For the lowest-premium silver regardless of brand, check the silver closest to spot page.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial or investment advice. FindBullionPrices.com is a price comparison platform and does not sell bullion or coins.
